Can Mclean future growth come from JCY's customer supply chain rationalisation ?

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Hello all... The latest happening in the global equity market - GAMESTOP (NYSE: GME). Sky rocket share prices that are not according to the fundamental of the company, but more towards a retail revenge towards hedge fund shorter that over-short GAMESTOP with more than 100% are putting hedge fund to brink of bankruptcy.

Welcome to the new era of trading. With so much money flushed into the capital market, gone are the days where hedge fund and IBs used to be controlling the market like how they used.

However, let's get back to business here, delivering my opinion and analysis towards this stock - MCLEAN 0167.

I have to tell you that I had this stock with me, I did mentioned about this stock for the past 2 months if you are following in my Telegram as well. But I am looking for the next 2 to 3 years with slew of interesting development that can happen to Mclean.

As I had mentioned in my previous posting, Mclean will be looking to see better revenue and profit starting 2021 due to new and increased orders from Thailand factory.

As you can see, the company involved in HDD works in Malaysia is just handful of company.

1. DUFU

2. JCY

3. Notion

4. Mclean

Let's dig deeper into all of them.

1. DUFU - Market leader, market cap RM 2 billion. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 291 million, trading at PE x40. Main focus all on HDD servives.

2. JCY - market cap RM 933 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM  1.07 billion. trading at PE x 36. Will be diversifying into Automotive sector. HDD will reduce with 1 major customer heading for a stop on 2021 due to realignment of supply chain.

3. Notion - market cap 435 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 242 million. Trading PE x 70. Notion already been diversifying out from HDD business, and going more into Automotive. Currently Notion is also into gloves business.

4. Mclean - market cap 78 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 56 million. Smallest amongst all 4, and have the smallest share outstanding in current position, 197 millions share only.

Today, I am going to discuss about - JCY order reduction which eventually will span out to a total stop from 1 major customer. This below is the official announcement from JCY.

If you know well, JCY customer in HDD segment includes Western Digital as well as Seagate. Both are major customer. Since Seagate had redirect most sources into Thailand to make it the main production hub, there is a high level of assumption that the major customer mentioned could be Seagate? This is my assumption, alright?

Since it is a major customer, we could be possibly looking at it contributing at least 25% to 35% to JCY total revenue. Let's take an assumption of 30%, that could be looking into RM 300 million.

As you can see, at the other hand, Mclean is expecting more job at Thailand factory this year.

So I will run some numbers based on current situation assumption. Do not treat all the numbers as facts, as I do not have any real figures.

Assumption scenario

Mclean to see extra revenue of RM 200 million per annum. Benchmark on current DUFU operating net profit margin, it is 17%. I am not going to take 17%, but using 12% as net profit margin.

RM 200 million x 12% = RM 24 million.

RM 24 million / 197 million shares = 12 cents EPS

Based on PE x 40

Share price valuation will be  12 cents x 40 = RM 4.8

At RM 4.8 share price, market capitalization for Mclean will be RM 945 million.

Here is Mclean chart

This is Dufu chart (adjusted to bonus issue)

So if Mclean is really heading towards RM 4, I would say it will not be an immediate event. It will possibly takes 2 to 3 years or even 4 years to materialize. Can you hold on to your investment that long? That is a question you need to ask yourself.

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Please be informed, above are rough calculation of a normal person outlook. I am not a professional or certified analyst. Not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. Please do not use my figures or data as a real referencing material. I am just sharing my thoughts of calculation, all truly based on assumption. This is not a buy sell trade reference material, please trade at your own risk or consult your own certified financial personnel.

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Mclean growth path is great with Thailand expansion

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If you are in my Telegram group, you would had noticed that I had been talking about Mclean Technologies Bhd for quite sometime. If you want to join the Telegram for FREE, yes, FREE, you can do so at https://t.me/targetinvest88

In fact, I had been talking on Mclean since the days it is trading below 20 cents. As I find this company very interesting on it's own way, the potential growth of this company opened up my eyes and mind as I compared to the peers of the industry, hence I would like to inform that I had vested interest in Mclean Technologies Bhd (MCLEAN - 0167).

Investing are tough nowadays, hence it is imperative to look for good companies to invest in growth that can burst up in a quick manner. 

While Mclean is a small company that most do not know yet, it is dealing with services such as cleanroom packaging and surface treatment such as precision washing for a few sector, namely oil and gas, HDD and other electronic goods.

One of the most exciting move that Mclean had taken 5 years ago is to venture to Thailand to be nearer to it's major customer Seagate.

Source

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mclean-expects-earnings-recovery

Seagate expansion in Thailand from 2015 to 2020 valued at USD 470m CAPEX.

Source

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-seagate-technolo-idUSKBN0LE15720150210

Currently, Seagate owned global HDD market share 40%

What we are seeing here is could be another future technology gem riding along with global MNC growth.

According to the latest quarter report from MCLEAN, the company is expecting a improved revenue starting 2H 2021 with contribution from Thailand factory due to increase demand and orders.

Let's look at the matured player in the HDD industry scene

1. DUFU - market cap almost RM 2 billion

MCLEAN TECHNOLOGIES BHD

RM 68 million market cap

I believe that MCLEAN is on a good growth position by leveraging on the growth of Seagate, and also the proximity of MCLEAN with Seagate largest producing hub in South East Asia will definitely give MCLEAN a lot of better chances in the coming future.

At the current market capitalization of RM 68 million, there is just a huge growth in terms of market cap for Mclean, given competitor are sitting at RM 2 billion market cap (DUFU).

JCY RM 950 million

Notion RM 440 million

(Do note that JCY will be exiting HDD business and focus on Automotive, and Notion is also reducing on HDD business and focus on other)

So do you think Mclean will stay at market cap RM 68 million forever? With JCY and Notion exiting and reducing HDD orders, player in this industry will streamline to 2 player - Dufu and Mclean

How much is the potential for Mclean, let's talk about a 3 years time frame?  RM 500 million market cap? That will be above RM 2.

Stay tune for more news on Mclean with Target Invest.

-- I have to informed that I have vested interest in Mclean, and I am not a certified financial or stock analyst. Above view is just my expression for your reference study and this is not a buy sell trade call for Mclean. Kindly do your own due diligence and consult your own resources --

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Global lumber prices soaring to benefit Minho in export

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What is the possible next trend for the global market? 2020 had saw glove theme, vaccine theme, plantation theme, logistic theme and the end year steel theme play. Coming into 2021, we should be looking no further at timber theme play, at least in the 1Q 2021.

Global plywood prices had been staying up, putting up pressure for prices to increase in construction as plywood are one of the main component in construction.

Prices for 1000 bdsf of plywood are now trading above usd 600, and in my opinion, prices will continue to remain inflated above usd 500 due to several factor as highlighted below :-

1. Coronavirus pandemic had affected the supply of log wood due to the lockdown. The timber processing supply chain from upstream logging work until downstream processing are affected by worker supply issue.

2. Developed country practicing work from home are encouraging more home renovation work to be done, and also more new home sales, hence pushing up demand for plywood in construction.

3. The forest supply for raw timber log at British Columbia are affected by infestation of mountain pine beetles. Warmer weather continue to encourage their growth and infestation.

4. Forest fire burned down 15 billion board feet of timber. 

Source - After the fires, timber industry faces ‘generational’ losses and longer-term supply questions of supply (msn.com)

With all the issue that are happening, supply chain are getting damaged while demand keep pushing up higher. This will only result in higher selling prices for timber goods.

WHY MINHO IS A POTENTIAL COMPANY TO GAIN FROM THIS ?

MINHO is in the business of timber for more than 40 years. Throughout the years, the business had expanded into several categories which include

-Kiln drying and chemical preservative treatment
-Manufacturing, exporting and dealing in moulded timber and related products.
-Export of processed timber products
-Trading in logs supply and timber related products
-Exploitation of timber concessions
-Operation of a fully integrated timber complex
-Manufacturing and distribution of industrial paper bags
-Property development
-Plantation

Minho export the sawn timber goods to Germany.

Currently, Minho charting is attractive as consolidation of the chart looks good at 35 cents

The price movement suggest a maturity point where a potential break out point will trigger the share price to move with a positive upward bias based on the global event happening in the timber trading.

For Mid/long term investor, current price around RM 0.35 +/- could be a good entry as price consolidated nicely around this range.

Above information is for reading and references on the write own personal opinion on the global timber trade and how it will affect company (Minho) that is dealing with timber trading. It does not represent a buy sell or trade to your investment decision.

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