Can Mclean future growth come from JCY's customer supply chain rationalisation ?

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Hello all... The latest happening in the global equity market - GAMESTOP (NYSE: GME). Sky rocket share prices that are not according to the fundamental of the company, but more towards a retail revenge towards hedge fund shorter that over-short GAMESTOP with more than 100% are putting hedge fund to brink of bankruptcy.

Welcome to the new era of trading. With so much money flushed into the capital market, gone are the days where hedge fund and IBs used to be controlling the market like how they used.

However, let's get back to business here, delivering my opinion and analysis towards this stock - MCLEAN 0167.

I have to tell you that I had this stock with me, I did mentioned about this stock for the past 2 months if you are following in my Telegram as well. But I am looking for the next 2 to 3 years with slew of interesting development that can happen to Mclean.

As I had mentioned in my previous posting, Mclean will be looking to see better revenue and profit starting 2021 due to new and increased orders from Thailand factory.

As you can see, the company involved in HDD works in Malaysia is just handful of company.

1. DUFU

2. JCY

3. Notion

4. Mclean

Let's dig deeper into all of them.

1. DUFU - Market leader, market cap RM 2 billion. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 291 million, trading at PE x40. Main focus all on HDD servives.

2. JCY - market cap RM 933 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM  1.07 billion. trading at PE x 36. Will be diversifying into Automotive sector. HDD will reduce with 1 major customer heading for a stop on 2021 due to realignment of supply chain.

3. Notion - market cap 435 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 242 million. Trading PE x 70. Notion already been diversifying out from HDD business, and going more into Automotive. Currently Notion is also into gloves business.

4. Mclean - market cap 78 million. Last 4 quarter cumulative revenue RM 56 million. Smallest amongst all 4, and have the smallest share outstanding in current position, 197 millions share only.

Today, I am going to discuss about - JCY order reduction which eventually will span out to a total stop from 1 major customer. This below is the official announcement from JCY.

If you know well, JCY customer in HDD segment includes Western Digital as well as Seagate. Both are major customer. Since Seagate had redirect most sources into Thailand to make it the main production hub, there is a high level of assumption that the major customer mentioned could be Seagate? This is my assumption, alright?

Since it is a major customer, we could be possibly looking at it contributing at least 25% to 35% to JCY total revenue. Let's take an assumption of 30%, that could be looking into RM 300 million.

As you can see, at the other hand, Mclean is expecting more job at Thailand factory this year.

So I will run some numbers based on current situation assumption. Do not treat all the numbers as facts, as I do not have any real figures.

Assumption scenario

Mclean to see extra revenue of RM 200 million per annum. Benchmark on current DUFU operating net profit margin, it is 17%. I am not going to take 17%, but using 12% as net profit margin.

RM 200 million x 12% = RM 24 million.

RM 24 million / 197 million shares = 12 cents EPS

Based on PE x 40

Share price valuation will be  12 cents x 40 = RM 4.8

At RM 4.8 share price, market capitalization for Mclean will be RM 945 million.

Here is Mclean chart

This is Dufu chart (adjusted to bonus issue)

So if Mclean is really heading towards RM 4, I would say it will not be an immediate event. It will possibly takes 2 to 3 years or even 4 years to materialize. Can you hold on to your investment that long? That is a question you need to ask yourself.

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Please be informed, above are rough calculation of a normal person outlook. I am not a professional or certified analyst. Not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. Please do not use my figures or data as a real referencing material. I am just sharing my thoughts of calculation, all truly based on assumption. This is not a buy sell trade reference material, please trade at your own risk or consult your own certified financial personnel.

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Mclean growth path is great with Thailand expansion

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If you are in my Telegram group, you would had noticed that I had been talking about Mclean Technologies Bhd for quite sometime. If you want to join the Telegram for FREE, yes, FREE, you can do so at https://t.me/targetinvest88

In fact, I had been talking on Mclean since the days it is trading below 20 cents. As I find this company very interesting on it's own way, the potential growth of this company opened up my eyes and mind as I compared to the peers of the industry, hence I would like to inform that I had vested interest in Mclean Technologies Bhd (MCLEAN - 0167).

Investing are tough nowadays, hence it is imperative to look for good companies to invest in growth that can burst up in a quick manner. 

While Mclean is a small company that most do not know yet, it is dealing with services such as cleanroom packaging and surface treatment such as precision washing for a few sector, namely oil and gas, HDD and other electronic goods.

One of the most exciting move that Mclean had taken 5 years ago is to venture to Thailand to be nearer to it's major customer Seagate.

Source

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mclean-expects-earnings-recovery

Seagate expansion in Thailand from 2015 to 2020 valued at USD 470m CAPEX.

Source

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-seagate-technolo-idUSKBN0LE15720150210

Currently, Seagate owned global HDD market share 40%

What we are seeing here is could be another future technology gem riding along with global MNC growth.

According to the latest quarter report from MCLEAN, the company is expecting a improved revenue starting 2H 2021 with contribution from Thailand factory due to increase demand and orders.

Let's look at the matured player in the HDD industry scene

1. DUFU - market cap almost RM 2 billion

MCLEAN TECHNOLOGIES BHD

RM 68 million market cap

I believe that MCLEAN is on a good growth position by leveraging on the growth of Seagate, and also the proximity of MCLEAN with Seagate largest producing hub in South East Asia will definitely give MCLEAN a lot of better chances in the coming future.

At the current market capitalization of RM 68 million, there is just a huge growth in terms of market cap for Mclean, given competitor are sitting at RM 2 billion market cap (DUFU).

JCY RM 950 million

Notion RM 440 million

(Do note that JCY will be exiting HDD business and focus on Automotive, and Notion is also reducing on HDD business and focus on other)

So do you think Mclean will stay at market cap RM 68 million forever? With JCY and Notion exiting and reducing HDD orders, player in this industry will streamline to 2 player - Dufu and Mclean

How much is the potential for Mclean, let's talk about a 3 years time frame?  RM 500 million market cap? That will be above RM 2.

Stay tune for more news on Mclean with Target Invest.

-- I have to informed that I have vested interest in Mclean, and I am not a certified financial or stock analyst. Above view is just my expression for your reference study and this is not a buy sell trade call for Mclean. Kindly do your own due diligence and consult your own resources --

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Global lumber prices soaring to benefit Minho in export

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What is the possible next trend for the global market? 2020 had saw glove theme, vaccine theme, plantation theme, logistic theme and the end year steel theme play. Coming into 2021, we should be looking no further at timber theme play, at least in the 1Q 2021.

Global plywood prices had been staying up, putting up pressure for prices to increase in construction as plywood are one of the main component in construction.

Prices for 1000 bdsf of plywood are now trading above usd 600, and in my opinion, prices will continue to remain inflated above usd 500 due to several factor as highlighted below :-

1. Coronavirus pandemic had affected the supply of log wood due to the lockdown. The timber processing supply chain from upstream logging work until downstream processing are affected by worker supply issue.

2. Developed country practicing work from home are encouraging more home renovation work to be done, and also more new home sales, hence pushing up demand for plywood in construction.

3. The forest supply for raw timber log at British Columbia are affected by infestation of mountain pine beetles. Warmer weather continue to encourage their growth and infestation.

4. Forest fire burned down 15 billion board feet of timber. 

Source - After the fires, timber industry faces ‘generational’ losses and longer-term supply questions of supply (msn.com)

With all the issue that are happening, supply chain are getting damaged while demand keep pushing up higher. This will only result in higher selling prices for timber goods.

WHY MINHO IS A POTENTIAL COMPANY TO GAIN FROM THIS ?

MINHO is in the business of timber for more than 40 years. Throughout the years, the business had expanded into several categories which include

-Kiln drying and chemical preservative treatment
-Manufacturing, exporting and dealing in moulded timber and related products.
-Export of processed timber products
-Trading in logs supply and timber related products
-Exploitation of timber concessions
-Operation of a fully integrated timber complex
-Manufacturing and distribution of industrial paper bags
-Property development
-Plantation

Minho export the sawn timber goods to Germany.

Currently, Minho charting is attractive as consolidation of the chart looks good at 35 cents

The price movement suggest a maturity point where a potential break out point will trigger the share price to move with a positive upward bias based on the global event happening in the timber trading.

For Mid/long term investor, current price around RM 0.35 +/- could be a good entry as price consolidated nicely around this range.

Above information is for reading and references on the write own personal opinion on the global timber trade and how it will affect company (Minho) that is dealing with timber trading. It does not represent a buy sell or trade to your investment decision.

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MCLEAN TO BE RIDING HIGH ON VACCINE LOGISTIC CHAIN SUPPLY ?

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For 2020, the most happening trades in the share market would be gloves and vaccines related companies, and logistic company that is going to be involved in distribution of vaccines.

 

Gloves company, you know who they are. Vaccine related companies that had inked MOU for distribution or manufacturing will be those like BINTAI, SOLUTION, HWGB. But how will the MOU goes, or will it materialized, that is another question, but so far, the companies shares are goreng goreng.

 

Logistic transportation are also on the hype, such TASCO that provide cold chain transportation services. TNLOGIS are also in the mood.

 

However, one might be wondering, what about companies involved in BULK PACKAGING FOR TRANSPORTATION OF VACCINE? Any listed companies in Malaysia will be close to be doing that?

 

 

IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHICH COMPANY, LET ME SHOW YOU A POTENTIAL COMPANY LISTED IN KLSE THAT HAD THE CAPABILITIES TO PROVIDE BULK PACKAGING CONTAINER FOR VACCINE TRANSPORTATION.

 

This company is MCLEAN TECHNOLOGIES BHD (MCLEAN - 0167)

 

MCLEAN mainly provide few services

1. Services for HDD industry including assembly process, cleaning and washing.

2. Services for Surface treatment for HDD industry, semicon, printers and oil and gas.

3. Manufacturing of packaging products - all types of tray, plastic corrugated partition, and customized plastic pallet that can withstand up to 1000KG load.

 

Since this is about packaging, so we will talk about the packaging segment of MCLEAN.

 

 

Below is the example of an insulated plastic pallet shipper for vaccines and other medical products.

 

 

 

 

 

More dimension to see how this plastic pallet looks like

 

 

 

 

 

The above is China brand plastic pallet shippers for medical items, including vaccines.

 

 

So what about MCLEAN ?
 

MCLEAN ALSO DOING SIMILAR PRODUCTS IN MALAYSIA AT JOHOR.

 

 

 

Their product now is servicing the semiconductor industry packaging. Customer include KESM.

So here are the image of the products, can be customized to suit customer needs.

 

So, can MCLEAN ride big on this?

 

Malaysia minister say that they want Malaysia to be a vaccine manufacturing hub in South East Asia, probably this will be able to change the fortune of MCLEAN in the coming future.

 

Now MCLEAN share price still looking good, around 20 cents range.

 

 

I believe MCLEAN will be having positive changes in 3 to 6 months time.

 

This is not a buy / sell / trade call for MCLEAN. Only informed of the potential prospect for MCLEAN. Any investment or trading decision, please do your own due diligence.

 

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INVEST DOMINAN NOW, FUTURE CAN GENERATE 10% ROI FROM DIVIDEND. CASH COW GOOD BUSINESS SOLID DIVIDEND PAYMENT RECORD. NO TIME TO MISS

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With MALAYSIA OPR rate shrinking down, FIXED DEPOSIT RATE had been dropping and interest income are affected greatly. 2 years back, the FD PROMOTION RATE can be as high as 4.5% PER ANNUM. At the current market scenario in 2020, the FD PROMOTION RATE can only go as high as 2% PER ANNUM, and the OPR RATE will be expected to stay low for sometime until economy recover and pick up again.

How long the market will takes to recover? How long will it pick up again? Will it stay low for a few years? 2 years? 3 years? 5 years?

If that is your concern, maybe is time to take some time and look for some dividend income that had better yield, steady and also had good management.

The one company I am looking into is DOMINAN 7169 (DOMINANT ENTERPRISE BERHAD).

This company main business is to supply raw material to furniture company for their manufacturing. Furniture plywood and skirtings. Dominan also supplies so construction material as their expansion business.

Dominant will also be looking to create a stream of steady rental income this year after their warehouse factory is ready and already have ready tenant to rent their commercial property.

Most importantly, investor have to know that this company is not a goreng goreng stock, the company owner always prioritize shareholder value, and dividend payment every quarterly.

DOMINAN had been paying dividend without fail since 2005.

Why the current price is very attractive for you to invest into DOMINAN.

1. The company had good and strong record of paying dividend. Here are the past 4 years total dividend that the company had paid out to shareholder.

YEAR 2017 - TOTAL DIVIDEND PAID IS 5 CENTS

YEAR 2018 TOTAL DIVIDEND IS 7 CENTS

YEAR 2019 TOTAL DIVIDEND IS 7 CENTS

YEAR 2020 TOTAL DIVIDEND IS 4 CENTS 

WHY FYE 2020 TOTAL DIVIDEND PAID IS LESSER ?

REASON IS SIMPLE, NOW THE WHOLE WORLD GOT COVID-19 SITUATION, AND DOMINAN SUFFER FROM A 3 MONTH LOCKDOWN ON OPERATION. THE IMPACTED THE REVENUE, HENCE THE LOWER DIVIDEND PAY OUT

HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FURNITURE LANDSCAPE AT MUAR, JOHOR IS OPERATING AT MAX CAPACITY. ORDER ARE PILLING UP AND FURNITURE MAKER ARE ALL BUSY FULFILLING ORDERS.

COMPANY LIKE POHUAT WHICH HAVE OPERATION IN MUAR AND VIETNAM ARE BOOMING WITH ORDERS.

DOMINAN ALSO HAVE OPERATION AT MUAR JOHOR AND VIETNAM.

BOTH ARE FURNITURE HUB IN SOUTHEAST ASIA!!!

SO WILL DOMINAN BUSINESS CONTINUE TO BE LOW ? OR THE BUSINESS WILL REBOUND?

IF BUSINESS REBOUND, WILL THE DIVIDEND GO BACK UP?

LETS SAY U ARE INVESTING AT 70 CENTS NOW, GIVE ANOTHER 1 YEAR, DOMINAN BUSINESS REGAIN TRACK AND CONTINUE PAY BACK 7 CENTS DIVIDEND A YEAR, MEANS YOU ARE GETTING 10% ROI ON DOMINAN DIVIDEND

RULES OF 72, BASED ON 10% ROI OF DIVIDEND, YOU WILL RECOUP ALL YOUR INVESTMENT FROM DOMINAN IN 7 YEARS!!!!

NOW THIS IS UR CHOICE TO SEE IF DOMINAN AT THE CURRENT PRICE WORTH FOR YOU TO TAKE THE RISK

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SCABLE FULL OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL NOW !!! CAN BE RUNNING AHEAD BEFORE SARAWAK ELECTION

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The Sabah state election already passed, votes casted, and new state government formed. Now the heat will be looking at the incoming Sarawak state election.

According to the constitution, the Sarawak state election must be held before the 7th September 2021, which means both parties got lesser than 12 months to prepare for it.

The Sarawak Election will be very crucial. The Sarawak state government had been pushing out a lot of infrastructure upgrade in order to improve the welfare of the people. One of the most significant is the construction of PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY.

According to TheEdge, the current completion of the Sarawak section stands at 52%, and Sabah is 32% as of August 2020.

There is still balance of 20 packages for the highway.

Excerpt taken from The Edge.

Sarawak push for infrastructure upgrade will benefit a lot of local Sarawakian company. Sarawak based company such as CMSB, SCABLE, KKB, HSL, ZECON

For now, my focus light will be SCABLE 5170. SARAWAK CABLE BERHAD

SCABLE price at the current level is very attractive. The company share price currently is resting at technical support line. While the company is making some losses, the political linkage with the Sarawak state government and established ties is very valuable for the company future potential growth.

We see the technical accumulation on 25th June 2020 as a very positive signal for the stock to move forward.

SCABLE substantial shareholder include Dato Sri Mahmud Abu Bekir Taib holding a total of 26%, which is the son of the Sarawak Governor - Tun Taib Mahmud

SARAWAK ENERGY BERHAD (SEB) also held substantial stake of 16%

WHY SCABLE WILL BE ATTRACTIVE 

1. MORE PROJECT TO BE AWARDED IN SARAWAK TO UPGRADE INFRASTRUCTURE AND RURAL AREA. EXAMPLES ARE ELECTRICITY CONNECTIVITY, INTERNET CONNECTIVITY AND ROAD.

2. SCABLE BOOK ORDER CURRENTLY MORE THAN RM 500 MILLION

3. ABLE TO PARTICIPATE MORE OF PAN BORNEO AND OTHER SARAWAK PROJECT IN COMING FUTURE

4. CURRENT SHARE PRICE IS LOW AND ATTRACTIVE WITH MINIMAL DOWNSIDE BUT GOOD UPSIDE POTENTIAL

WE HAD WITNESS SCIB UPSIDE POTENTIAL. FROM RM 1.00 UNTIL RM 4.00

NOW SCABLE CURRENT SHARE PRICE IS RM 0.20, WHERE WILL BE THE UPSIDE POTENTIAL ? RM 1.00 ?

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