Wednesday, May 29, 2024

HTPADU GAP DOWN AND SELL DOWN? WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com



I would like to refer to the latest gapping down selling down pressure on HTPADU which had definitely caught my attention as this counter had seen many corporate development as well as entry and exit of prominent figures in the shareholding.


As we can see, on Monday (27th May 2024), HTPADU share gap down and sell down vigorously on 2 news that is available to the public.

The 1st news is the official news, HTPADU pending court trial is postponed to another date to 11th June 2024.
The trial is between PERTUBUHAN KESELAMATAN SOSIAL (PLAINTIFF) VS HEITECH PADU BERHAD (DEFENDANT)

The 2nd news is the rumoring news from news portal, stating that HTPADU had withdrawn from the tender of NIISE, hence leaving THETA and DNEX in the forefront of the fight.


To understand the case, HTPADU gain heavy attention previously which saw share price rocketing from a lowly 80 cents to more than RM 3.00 is due to the heavy anticipation that HTPADU is going to win the NIISE contract which is worth billions of ringgit.

The anticipation is backed up even more with 2 influential shareholder

1. WONG THEAN SOON - founder and owner of MYEG, which is operating the MYIMMs system for more than 10 years experience. The NIISE is an upgrade of the system which will grant faster processing.

2. Datuk Farhash Wafa Salvador - The ex-aide of current prime minister, which is also currently serving as Chairman of Excelforce MSC (another vehicle of WONG THEAN SOON). However, Datuk Farhash had since relinquished all his stake in Rosetta to the sole owner, Sultan of Kelantan.


The share price had seen rocking movement from RM 3 dropping to RM 2 and going back up to RM 2.50 before the damning news piece of HTPADU being out of the NIISE project in a form of rumor.


As a market investor what do you think of such aggressive movement of the share price, coupled with corporate development and news coverage ranging from official news and unofficial news. Do note that until now, the company is still keeping quiet on whether they are pulling out from the tender or not. Nobody knew except the bosses.

What Target Invest think about this?

Opinion : Target invest analysis

Htpadu which had been trading at rm 2.50 suddenly got gap down and sell down accompanied by 2 news

1st news - unofficial rumor news by newsportal nanyang and sinchew on htpadu potential drop out from NIISE, leaving only Theta and Dnex

2nd news - official news from Htpadu bursa website on High court writ of summon on past issues concerning pertubuhan keselamat sosial reschedule hearing (release on friday evening after trading hour)

From what we can see is

1. Theta and Dnex is lacking of the momemtum needed to justify the NIISE contract. (Theta and Dnex gap up sell down)

2. HTPADU still have influential shareholder Wong Thean Soon, whose acquistion price for more than 20% of the block share being priced at rm 2.03

3. There is no panic selling in Cuscapi and MYEG share.

4. HTPADU did not officially announce that they had pulled out from NIISE tender, it is just newsportal rumors.

What can happen next?

1. If the news is true, current price is still below Wong thean soon rm2 stake, and it is already priced into the news that HTPADU is not going for the NIISE contract.

2. Htpadu can remain silent until the official reward of the the NIISE contract and share price might possibly go up again on the news.


Date to look out for will be 11th June 2024, which is the date of the case between Htpadu and Pertubuhan Keselamatan Sosial, where a favorable result will see HTPADU going up again.


In conclusion

Target Invest think that HTPADU is potentially still in the NIISE tender. With Wong TS stake in HTPADU, it means alot more as WONG TS,s MYEG had all the experience from more than 10yrs to make NIISE better.


The current price of RM 1.90 range is already factored in for the idea that HTPADU is not going for the NIISE contract, however, it remained as a rumor. If it turnout to be HTPADU is the winner, or part of the contract winner, then it will be a good catalyst for it to see it's share price going up again.


All the speculation will be known at the end of June 2024 when the result of the tender is announced. Till then, we will see a volatile trading for the next 3 weeks.


What do you think?


IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.


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Thursday, May 23, 2024

MALAYSIA HYDROGEN ECOSYSTEM - LCTITAN, MISC, M&G

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com


I had been covering on Hydrogen and how LCTITAN can be involved in the hydrogen logistic ecosystem by producing Toluene as a hydrogen carrier to become MCH (Methylcyclohexane)

You can read more here



I would like to share more on the whole ecosystem and it's stakeholder and company which can be potentially involved in other parts of the hydrogen logistic.



Currently, LCTITAN seems to be very undervalued with NTA ranging at RM 5.
With Blue Hydrogen slated to commence delivery in 2025, LCTITAN toluene production should be kicking in, and will be looking to utilize the factory more towards 90%.



Can LCTITAN finally break out from this down trend and come out like a shining star?

I am invested in LCTITAN and very interested in the green hydrogen ecosystem.



IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.


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Monday, May 20, 2024

HOW LCTITAN CAN BE ROPING INTO THE GREEN HYDROGEN ECOSYSTEM WITH TOLUENE?

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com



Today, I would like to share with you all my reader a potential stock with great exposure in the upcoming development of the green energy era.

As we are battling with global climate warming, develop nation all over the world is rushing to find another alternative to the current energy demand, which boils down to -> renewable energy. The renewable energy sector is very big and diverse, but a cleaner option would be wind, solar and hydro.

But some countries do not have the condition to generate enough sustainable renewable energy, hence will result into importing renewable energy in the form of HYDROGEN (H2).

Malaysia is blessed to be natural resources and ample of sunlight, and Japan and Korea had chosen Malaysia as one of their future renewable energy sources - to use solar and hydroelectric to generate electricity for electrolysis of water into oxygen and hydrogen






What is MCH (Methylcyclohexane)? Why Japan and South Korea is using MCH as Hydrogen import?

Hydrogen can be transported in many forms. Gas form is not viable because it lacks density. Liquid hydrogen is very cost because it is very you need it to be freeze into -253 degree celsius, and stored at constant  -162 degree celsius, which is very energy draining.

Hence the alternative will be storing hydrogen as mixture liquid, which is
1. Ammonia (NH3)
2. MCH (methylcyclohexane) 

However, Ammonia is corrosive, and will not be suitable to be stored in the existing infrastructure of the oil storage tanks in Japan and Korea.

The best option is MCH, which is a product by mixing hydrogen and toluene.
MCH characteristic
- stable in room temperature
- can be stored in existing oil drum storage facilities
- can be shipped by existing marine oil tanker
- can hold more hydrogen than other liquid
- can be recycled to use




So how does LCTITAN come into the picture of HYDROGEN and MCH (Methylcyclohexane) ?

From a chemical producer running into green energy supply chain, LCTITAN is poised for a strong rerating as they will be the main player in the whole picture of hydrogen to MCH conversion.

LCTITAN is the main producer for a critical component in the creation of MCH -> toluene




Hydrogenation of toluene: 
CH3 C6 H5 (Toluene) + 3 H2 (Hydrogen) → CH3 C6 H11 Methylcyclohexane


I will be sharing more information on this area soon. 
How much hydrogen is needed by Japan and South Korea?
How much toluene will need to be produce?
What is the timeline?
What is LCTITAN strategy in Malaysia and Indonesia?

Finally, and most interestingly, are you ready to get invested into green hydrogen supply chain by looking up at LCTITAN? I have to informed my reader that I am invested in LCTITAN because of this green hydrogen energy transfer between Malaysia and Japan / South Korea. I had also found of that Petronas Chemical do not produce Toluene, which make LCTITAN a possible sole producer for now.

Please do your own research and study on this area before investing.


IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.


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Friday, May 17, 2024

IS CENSOF WORTH YOUR HOLDING FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS? READ THIS BEFORE DECIDING

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com



I am sure that you are aware that I am invested in CENSOF for quite some time (More than 1 year).
From the start when the price is around RM 0.22, I am invested into CENSOF and continue to be invested by adding more shares into my portfolio.

You can refer to my sharing of CENSOF here.







The main question is here. Currently, CENSOF is trading at RM 0.30, is this the time to take profit? Can I stay invested into CENSOF longer? What are the business prospect outlook for CENSOF?

By now, most of the technical trader had exited CENSOF. However, there will still be a new batch of trader who will be entering CENSOF for the upward ride.

I will be sharing you my view on CENSOF for the next 3 years and also why this share can be worth to hold for dividend as well.

Malaysia government will be rolling out digital government services, and a lot of it will require transfer of services and storage from physical into digital. 

And CENSOF will be one of the main integration partners in all this transfer.

We will be referring to storage of E-invoices, Digital ID, E-passport, and even your house purchasing e-SPA.


This will make CENSOF very good in having GOVERNMENT services and also can enjoy commercial side of business (E invoice). With the current position of net cash and growing strong business model, CENSOF can be a future good dividend company.



For technical view



CENSOF already completed a series of downtrend. The current up trend will be supported with 
1. Government digitalization effort
2. Commercial e-invoice and ERP system


I am still invested in CENSOF, and will keep invested into CENSOF for dividend play for the future.


IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.


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Monday, April 29, 2024

HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK PAOS WILL GET FROM LAND REVALUATION OR CASH FROM POTENTIAL LAND SALE FOR MALAYSIA HIGH SPEED RAIL DEVELOPMENT

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com



In my previous posting on PAOS, I mentioned on the potential of factory land acquisition by myHSR for the construction of HIGH SPEED RAIL HSR PUTRAJAYA station around the area of Banting.

Read more info here


According to the annual report, PAOS properties had been sitting in net book valued more than 20 years ago. With the potential coming on HIGH SPEED RAIL HSR PUTRAJAYA STATION taking it's factory land, there will be a need for revaluation of properties in order to reflect the right price for the purchase.

Let's take a look on the properties asset of PAOS.


The potential asset near HIGH SPEED RAIL HSR PUTRAJAYA will be NO.3, JALAN GANGSA, KAW PERUSAHAAN BANTING, 42700 BANTING, SELANGOR.
The land area is 119,356sf (Around 2.74 acre), sitting at RM 2.6 million in valuation.

According to the latest transaction around that area taken from BRICKZ.MY 



Let's say PAOS FACTORY land area is RM 200 PSF in average, the subject property will be valued at RM 23.87 million, an stunning increased of RM 21 million. (Current book value is just being 10% of the real market value)

What about the value for the main office at Shah alam?


The land in Shah alam is 254850sf, around 5.85 acre.


Current price at the industrial area is transacting at RM 230 PSF in average.

Which mean, PAOS factory at Section 15 shah alam will be looking at RM 58.61 million on average, a big increase of RM 47.11 million.


Combining both, the revaluation gain will be RM 68.11 million. The revaluation exercise will potentially bring in 37.5 cents in EPS.

What is more intriguing is the recent transaction surrounding this area where factory transaction are going on in a group. The transaction could be looking to see HSR railway alignment going from banting into shah alam and turning to bandar Malaysia.



If this really happen, PAOS will stand to receive almost RM 70 million in land sale for HSR construction.

I would like to inform my reader that I am invested in PAOS due to
1. Asset being very undervalued with net book value more than 20 years ago
2. Asset highly potential for conversion into cash through malaysia HIGH SPEED RAIL Land Acquisition
3. Asset highly link with movement in HWATAI

I will continue to stay invested in PAOS to see the excitement of the Malaysia High Speed Rail development.


IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.


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Thursday, April 25, 2024

MALAYSIA HIGH SPEED RAIL PUTRAJAYA STATION POTENTIAL SITE TO SEE LAND ACQUISITION INVOLVING PAOS FACTORY IN BANTING

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com



Malaysia is picking up steam on the progress of HSR. While the main place of the station is well known, such as Bandar Malaysia, other places such as Putrajaya, Seremban, Melaka is a guess for most.


Earlier, Target Invest spot a potential location of HSR Batu Pahat landing. You can find it here


Today, Target Invest would like to make a very good guess on the possibility of the potential location of HSR Putrajaya station and railway line alignment.

After a series of studies, the potential site for the MALAYSIA HIGH SPEED RAIL HSR Putrajaya Station might be landing at Banting.


It will be the best alignment as it will not cut through the KLIA from Seremban. And the location will still have a good proximity to KLIA.

Zooming into it, I will place my bets on the site being here at Banting Industrial area.



The area will eat up a huge place for railway path, parking and other infrastructure.

The site will potentially take up a few factory as to make way for station and railway.




PAOS HOLDING BHD will be in the vicinity of the land for the Putrajaya HSR station and railway which is highly potential to see land acquisition.


There is also a very high co-relationship in Batu Pahat land acquisition and Putrajaya in terms of share prices of potential company involving in land sale.

As of my previous blog, Batu Pahat potential candidate is HWATAI.

Today reveal of Putrajaya candidate will be PAOS.


As you can see, HWATAI and PAOS share price movement are identical on the time frame.

They also have identical shareholder which can further give the case a better boost on the linkage that this 2 companies are going to see their land asset being buy back for HSR station or railway.

So what do you think of this piece of information?

PAOS -> HSR PUTRAJAYA
HWATAI -> HSR BATU PAHAT

HOW MUCH IS MY PREDICTION ON SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT?

BASED ON 100% RETURN THEORY (MY OWN THEORY),
HWATAI COULD BE RM 1.20
and
PAOS COULD BE RM 1.00


If you cannot buy land to capture the opportunity, probably buying shares can get some fractional exposure towards the excitement in the development of the HSR news.


PLEASE BE INFORMED THAT I AM IN NO POSITION LINK WITH ANYONE WITH HSR INFORMATION, GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL, OR INSIDERS. ALL INFORMATION IS PURELY BASED ON EXISTING AVAILABLE INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET, ANNUAL REPORT AND SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT. ALL THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS JUST MY VIEW ON POTENTIAL HSR DEVELOPMENT SITE BASED ON ANNUAL REPORT LAND ASSET, SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT AND COMMON SHAREHOLDERS.


IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.

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Tuesday, April 9, 2024

E-invoice candidate, who is the best deal now?

Blog https://targetinvest88.blogspot.com


Malaysia is launching on e-invoice test run on the month of May 2024, while the 1st batch of compulsory participating company with annual revenue above rm 100 million will go live on August 2024.

So while the trend is going to be picked up soon, let me show you some of the listed company that are involved in e-invoice/ pos system / erp system.


Here is 4 commonly known listed player in KLSE
1. ADB - 0276
2. CENSOF - 5195
3. IFCAMSC - 0023
4. PANDA - 0290

ADB and PANDA is the 2 companies that went IPO within the past 12 months period.


1. ADB

ADB annual revenue is around RM 40 million, with net profit at rm 12 to RM 13 million region
Market capitalization for ADB is RM 522 million with share price at 95 cents region





2. CENSOF





Censof got 2 types of customers. Government and commercial. On the commercial side of business, Censof software sales is around RM 25 million (Since e-invoice is only for commercial business)

The profit for the commercial customer is around RM 7 million annually on average.


3. IFCAMSC





IFCAMSC got the higher revenue compared to all the other, averaging RM 75 million for it's software services. However, it lacks on net profit margin, with the latest 4 quarter net profit at just RM 2.6 million. IFCAMSC can go further if they embark on internal operating cost restructuring.

Market cap is RM 200 million at the current share price.


4. PANDA





Panda annual revenue is around RM 23 million, with net profit at RM 4.3 million range. The market cap for PANDA is now at RM 208 million. The share price has seen a good run forward in the midst of implementation of e-invoice.


TARGET INVEST OPINION

In my opinion, CENSOF and PANDA commercial customer revenue base is very comparable, which is sitting at the range of RM 25 million. However, looking at the valuation, PANDA is currently valued at RM 200 million while CENSOF is just RM 140 million. That is not including the government side of business profit that CENSOF is bringing in to the shareholder.

Should CENSOF trade towards RM 200 million market cap valuation, CENSOF share price will be trading at RM 0.36 per share.

Current share price (RM 0.25) of CENSOF is 30% below valuation for peer to peer comparison on commercial SME customer base. Adding in government revenue and profit will bring CENSOF value more than RM 300 million.


What do you think of the 4 selections? Which one is undervalue?



IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please be informed that I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.




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