BE SMART AND DOMINAN !!!! INVEST DOMINAN ON UNDERVALUED POSITION

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Looking for the next trend play in Bursa Malaysia? No need to look further, neither left or right, east or west. The trend that is in play and will continue for a while will be the furniture theme play. But not all furniture player are going to benefit from this Work From Home, only a certain player stand out to benefit more.

Hence, I would like to point out to the FURNITURE HUB of MALAYSIA, that is in MUAR, JOHOR. This is the place where all the popular and branded furniture maker gather together, where raw material, skill worker are centered in a location.

According to data, the furniture export from MUAR, JOHOR represent 50% of the whole Malaysia. That is a very commendable figure to say.

The current COVID-19 situation had created a new market - WORK FROM HOME. This new opportunity is currently having a big void to be filled up for most of the exporting furniture player in MUAR.

The EDGE - Local Furniture players get a boost from WORK FROM HOME POLICY from the US.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/local-furniture-players-get-boost-wfh-policy-us

According to the report, furniture maker in MUAR stand to benefit from US 2 trillion (RM 8.3 trillion) stimulus cash hand out.

So, how are furniture player in MUAR performing in terms of share price? .

POHUAT - REBOUNDED HIGHER FROM THE SELL DOWN DURING LOCKDOWN

WEGMANS - REBOUNDED HIGHER FROM LOCKDOWN SELL OFF

LIIHEN - REBOUNDED HIGHER FROM LOCKDOWN SELL OFF

SWSCAP - REBOUNDED WITH GOOD UPTREND

WHEN MOST OF THE FURNITURE MAKER IN MUAR ARE HAVING THRIVING BUSINESS, HOW ABOUT THE SUPPLIER FOR FURNITURE MAKER ????

I WANT TO INTRODUCE TO YOU - DOMINAN 7169

LESS KNOWN TO MOST, BUT THIS WOOD PANEL / PLYWOOD SUPPLIER TO FURNITURE MAKER IN MUAR AND VIETNAM IS UNDERLOOKED

HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL TO REBOUND BACK TO IT'S NORM SHOULD NOT BE FAR AWAY AS DOMINAN IS A GOOD FUNDAMENTAL COMPANY, PAY DIVIDEND FEW TIME EVERY YEAR, NTA RM 1.80 AND WELL MANAGED WITH GOOD OWNERS.

DOMINAN STAND TO BENEFIT FROM

1. STRONG ORDER FROM FURNITURE MAKER AT MUAR

2. BETTER PRICING IN WOOD MATERIAL

3. LOWER INTEREST RATE WILL BENEFIT THE OUTSTANDING LOAN TAKEN BY DOMINAN

CURRENT PRICE CHART WILL SEE DOMINAN IS READY TO BREAK OUT FROM THE LOW PRICE RANGE, CONSOLIDATION ALREADY MAX OUT AND READY TO GO UP

DOMINAN

https://www.dominant.com.my/

DOMINAN PROMOTED IN TELEGRAM DURING 68 cents to 70 cents. CURRENT 72 cents. Looking at DOMINAN to reach RM 1.00

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KMLOONG IS THE GOLDEN DRAGON RISING UP IN 2H 2020 WITH STRONG FCPO PRICES

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Prices of Crude Palm Oil continue to rise with strength. The FCPO had broken above 3000 mark for OCTOBER delivery. This is a very good price for plantation company because they will be having good profit margin from the high price that they are selling at open market.

Previously I had introduced a few plantation company, all of them had risen up.

You can check THPLANT, recommend at 38 cents, currently trading at 46 cents

Jaya Tiasa (Jtiasa), recommended at 65 cents, currently trading above 70 cents.

Today want to recommend a good company that is doing good at palm oil plantation previously, and also give dividend yearly. 

This company is KMLOONG (KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD - 5027)

IN CHINESE, THIS COMPANY IS A GOLDEN DRAGON

THIS YEAR IS BEST YEAR FOR PLANTATION COMPANY TO SEE SHARE PRICE RISING UP STEADILY, JUST LIKE A GOLDEN DRAGON AWAKEN UP TO FLY

WHAT ARE THE REASON FOR PALM OIL PLANTATION TO CONTINUE SEEING A BULLISH PRICE THROUGHOUT END OF 2020 UNTIL START OF 1H OF 2021.

1. CHANGES OF WEATHER AFFECT SOY BEAN HARVEST

THE GLOBAL WARMING EFFECT HAD BROUGHT HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING MONSOON SEASON. THE WETTER THAN USUAL RAIN AND STRONGER THAN USUAL WINDS WILL DESTROY CROPS, HENCE DECREASING THE HARVEST OF GOODS.

2. LOCUST SWARMS ATTACK ON INDIA DEVASTATED AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS, INCLUDING SOYBEAN PLANTATION.

3. GROWING DEMAND FROM ORGANIC BROILERS (CHICKEN FARM) PUSH UP NON-GMO SOYBEAN CONSUMPTION

4. INDIA REPORTED A 30% DROP ON GMO SOYBEAN HARVEST

5. CULTURAL FESTIVAL WHICH ARE LINED UP (CHINESE - MOONCAKE FESTIVAL, INDIA - DEEPAVALI, DECEMBER CHRISTMAS) WILL PUSH UP EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION FOR 2H 2020.

US SOYBEAN OIL FUTURE

US SOYBEAN FUTURES

WHY KIMLOONG ?

THIS COMPANY DURING LOWER PALM OIL PRICES STILL CAN BE PROFITABLE, AND ALSO PAY DIVIDEND.

THE COMING QUARTERLY RESULT WILL NOT BE TOO BAD, BUT CAN EXPECT DIVIDEND TO BE DECLARED, PROBABLY AROUND 3 CENTS. DURING GOOD TIMES, KMLOONG PAY 6 CENTS DIVIDEND.

THE DIRECTOR ALSO FEEL GOOD ON THE COMPANY OUTLOOK AND CONTINUE BUYING SHARES FOR COMING RESULT AND DIVIDEND.

KMLOONG PROSPECT AND OUTLOOK POSITIVE, AND WILL BE A VERY STRONG DRAGON AT 2H 2020.

ONCE BREAKOUT FROM RESISTANT LINE RM 1.45, KMLOONG CAN GO FURTHER RM 1.60.

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BTM RESOURCES BHD CONFIRMED UPTREND.. SHAREHOLDER ALSO INDICATE CONFIRMED UPTREND

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BTM RESOURCES BERHAD, A NORTHERN REGION TIMBER PLAYER DIVERSIFYING INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD BE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTOR EYEING TO INVEST INTO THE CONCESSION AT THE CURRENT PRICE.

BTM RESOURCES BACKGROUND

BTM Resources Berhad ("BTM") was incorporated in Malaysia on 10th June 1994 as a public limited company under the Companies Act, 1965. BTM is listed on 27th March 1996 on the Main Market of the Bursa Malaysia.

The principal activity of BTM is that of investment holding and provision of management services while its subsidiary companies are involved in logging, sawmilling, trading of sawn timber, logs and plywood, kiln-drying operations, timber moulding, manufacturing of finger jointed timber and lamination boards, and letting of plant and machineries.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT

BTM TO SELL ENERGY TO TNB FOR 21 YEARS, COMMENCING NO LATER THAN JANUARY 2023. THE CAPACITY IS 10MW, WITH A FIXED RATE OF 34.86 cent PER kWH FOR 21 YEARS.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/07/605491/btm-sell-power-tnb-21-years

While things are still fresh, there are a lot of background work which is already going on.

Firstly is private placement of 10% which is approved.

Secondly, there is a new entry of shareholder which is very bullish on BTM to be CONFIRMED UPTREND

DATUK WOO THIN CHOY 4.45% acquisition via CONFIRMED UPTREND SDN BHD. This company name already giving hint :D

Now that the KLSE MOST PROLIFIC COMPANY, TOPGLOVE, already announce outstanding QR, i believe the shift of trend will be coming towards PLANTATION AND TIMBER INDUSTRY next week

The chart is showing good consolidation effort around 20 cents. Trend like is looking good with uptrend effort able to see BTM trading 25 cents for next spike.

Market talks are looking at BTM probably eyeing for fresh concession from TERENGGANU STATE GOVERNMENT for fresh timber concession. If BTM is able to secure more land for INDUSTRIAL TIMBER PLANTATION, then BTM will be very attractive moving forward.

The INDUSTRIAL TIMBER PLANTATION CONCESSION will be used to feed in fuel for the 10MW BIOMASS ENERGY PLANT.

MARKET OBSERVER ARE POSITIVE BTM WILL BE ABLE TO GET 3000 TO 6000 ACRE OF LAND FOR INDUSTRIAL TIMBER PLANTATION, FROM A MIXED OF PRIVATE JOINT VENTURE AND STATE GOVERNMENT LEASE LAND.

With just a market capitalization of RM 27 million, there are much space for BTM to explore upwards

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FGV IS ALL YOU NEED FOR GORENG GORENG PLANTATION - FIGHT ALL WAY OUT

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TODAY, A VERY VERY IMPORTANT EVENT HAPPENED IN THE MALAYSIA DERIVATIVES MARKET. THE FCPO (CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES) HAD OPENED WITH A BULLISH START, AND END WITH A BULLISH NOTE THAT HAD DEFEATED THE RESISTANT LINE OF 2900 WITH GOOD STRENGTH AND VOLUME

THE PALM OIL FUTURES ALSO TESTED ABOVE 12 YEAR LONG RESISTANT LINE, WITH GOOD STRENGTH TO PUSH TOWARDS 3000

SINCE ALL LOW AND MID LINER PALM OIL COUNTER HAD MOVED, ONLY 1 FAVORITE BIG GORENG GORENG LEFT.

THE COUNTER IS NONE OTHER THAN  FGV - 5222

FGV HOLDINGS BERHAD

FGV PRODUCTION OUTPUT FOR CRUDE PALM OIL IS EVEN LARGER THAN IOICORP BY 4 TIMES!!!!

TECHNICAL CHART SHOW FGV IS IMPENDING TO EXPLODE ALL WAY OUT !!!!

1. BASED ON 6 MONTH TREND LINE, FGV IS ON UP TREND, AND WILL BREAK ABOVE DOWN THE DOWN TREND LINE AND TRADE HIGHER

2. FGV GOT CUP AND HANDLE FORMATION, AND BACKED WITH HIGHER FCPO PRICE WHICH REAFFIRM BREAK OUT

3. FGV BREAK OUT FROM TRIANGLE SHAPE WILL BE A UPWARDS BREAK UP INSTEAD OF DOWNWARDS BECAUSE FCPO PRICES ARE ALL TIME HIGH IN 2020

WHERE WILL FCPO BE HEADING TOWARDS IN 2020?

IN 2008, IT WAS ABOVE 4000!!

LET ME BRING YOU SOME PROJECTION FOR 2020

FOLLOWING THE UPTRENDING PROJECTION OF THE FCPO, THE FCPO HITTING 3100 / 3200 RANGE IS POSSIBLE.

FGV IS THE LAST BIG POWERFUL WOLF IN PLANTATION INDUSTRY GOING TO MOVE !!!

FGV LETS GO - RM 1.50 

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THPLANT TO TURN INTO BETTER FORTUNES IN 2020

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More than 10 years back, there is a financial crisis that brought down a lot of big corporate into their knees. If you would recall back, during the 2008, when everything is tumbling down, PALM OIL and SOY OIL had risen so sharply in the global market.

Now more than 10 years after that event, is this event going to happen again? Are you looking at CRUDE PALM OIL heading to a great break out from the 10 years long resistant bar?

HERE IS CHART FOR US SOYBEAN OIL

HERE IS THE LONG TERM CHART FOR MALAYSIA CRUDE PALM OIL

HERE ARE SEVERAL REASON FOR FCPO TO BREAK OUT 3000 IN YEAR 2020

1. INDIA INCREASING IMPORT DUE TO DEEPAVALI CELEBRATION 

2. CHINA INCREASING IMPORT DUE TO MOONCAKE FESTIVAL SEASON

3. EUROPE/US INCREASING IMPORT DUE TO CHRISTMAS SEASON

OTHER FACTORS INCLUDE

1. GLOBAL COUNTRY LOOKING FOR FOOD SECURITY DURING CRISIS PERIOD

2. PALM OIL INDUSTRY BOTTOM UP ON SHARE PRICE AND READY FOR UPWARDS RUN

3. CRUDE PALM KERNEL OIL & PROCESSED PALM KERNEL OIL TAX EXEMPTION ON EXPORT DUTY FROM 1ST JULY 2020 UNTIL 31ST DECEMBER 2020

There are many counter that are interesting. Some are good, some are bad, some are turning good but still at low prices.

The one I see turning good and still in low price is THPLANT - 5112

WHY I THINK THPLANT IS GOOD ?

THPLANT is having a good technical chart reading. The uptrend is supported with better outlook in the overall industry. With FCPO at good prices, and THPLANT at the lowest price region in the past 10 years, it is not too bad a gamble with calculated risk.

Comparing with other peers around the similar size, THPLANT FFB production is considerable good. 

Now THPLANT is already fully impaired. Although THPLANT have a large debt pile, the lower interest rate will be beneficial with lower interest servicing. A lot of analyst will be expecting a further cut in the coming BNM policy meeting.

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FCPO UP!! LUMBER PRICE UP!! WHAT TO INVEST? INVEST JTIASA OK OR NOT?

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Today market happening - aside from Coronavirus or Covid19, vaccine for covid 19 or booming gloves industry, something to take note on the raising commodity prices of Palm Oil and the Timber / Lumber should be taken into every investor alert list

FCPO had been raising with continuous purchase from Middle east, India, China and European countries. The trend is looking for FCPO to trade nearer to 3000 for a longer period of time, which will be beneficial for palm oil producer with the price staying at the higher range for a longer period. The subsequent effect of this will see palm oil industry player reporting better earning and profits, hence higher share price.

Another thing to take look is the madness surge up of the Lumber Futures in the global market.

The steep surge in LUMBER FUTURES is from a set of event that contribute to this.

1. LACK OF SUPPLY FROM CANADA PINE FOREST DUE TO BEETLE INFESTATION ON PINE TREE.

2. SAWMILL OFFLINE DUE TO ASSUMPTION THAT PLYWOOD DEMAND WILL DROP DUE TO COVID19 LOCKDOWN

3. LOCKDOWN ACTIVITIES IN US HOUSEHOLD ENCOURAGES DIY PROJECT, CONSUMES MORE PLYWOOD (TIMBER)

4. LATEST EFFECT FROM HURRICANE LAURA PUT IN BIG DEMAND FOR REBUILDING

5. JAPAN REBUILDING FROM TYPHOON HAGIBIS 2019 

Sources

beetle infestation - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-08-17/mountain-pine-beetle-infestations-are-killing-forests-could-worsen-emissions

hurricane laura - https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/28/us/satellite-images-hurricane-laura-before-after-trnd/index.html

Japan Hagibis rebuilding - https://www.mida.gov.my/home/9788/news/plywood-makers-may-see-rebound-in-exports-to-japan/

The LUMBER FUTURES will not be looking to come down fast due to government all over the world will be pushing more infrastructure development to boost up economy and GDP. TIMBER CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HIGH.

IF YOU INVEST IN COMPANIES DEALING WITH EITHER 1 OF THIS INDUSTRY, OR FOR BETTER, BOTH ALSO INVOLVED, YOU ARE MOST PROBABLY IN GOOD HANDS.

ONE COMPANY THAT I THINK WILL BENEFIT GREATLY FROM THESE 2 (HIGHER FCPO PRICE and HIGHER TIMBER PLYWOOD PRICE) WILL BE - JAYA TIASA (JTIASA 4383)

JTIASA have palm oil plantation, and also wood based product and harvesting.

Their output for AUGUST 2020 is not bad.

According to the chart analysis, JTIASA is on an uptrend, with a good entry point.

JTIASA is a good company to get some exposure for the trend. The company have good liquidity and will be an attractive target for investor and trader in the coming days.

Mid Term TP : RM 1.00

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EKSONS INVENTORY VALUE WRITE DOWN OF RM 11.7MILLION IS A BLESSING IN DISGUISE NOW

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Lumber price continue to sky rocket without stopping. These event will be turning into a golden opportunity to a lot of timber/lumber company that had been sleeping for so many years. The current spot rate had gone as high as USD 857 per 1000 bd ft. This is the highest in history on lumber prices had gone up.

A lot of timber company are worth looking at with the surging price of lumber not looking to back off until at least reaching USD 1000

My attention is towards a undervalued company - Eksons Corporation Bhd 9016, a plywood mill at Sabah which export to international market, especially Japan, Europe and US.

This company recently reported a huge losses on FYE 2020 for March 2020. One of the biggest reason is the inventory valuation at the current market price during March 2020, which is at the worst of pricing. The inventory write down RM 11.7 million due to spot price plunged below USD 300 per 1000 bd ft. This resulted in company announcing a loss of 25.6 cent per share despite higher sales revenue from timber division.

The explanation note stated on 2.5 million from property impairment and RM 11.7 million from inventory value write down. 

Here is the ending spot rate for March 2020 of lumber futures. According to the delivery spot rate for LUMBER FUTURE AT MARCH 2020 is USD 276 only!!!! That is the reason for RM 11.7 million write down on inventory value.

However, the current spot price for the LUMBER FUTURE is USD 857. That is an increase of USD 581, or increase of 310% from the MARCH 2020 low point

Based on the current impairment done on EKSONS inventory, now all the TIMBER INVENTORY at EKSONS will be carrying value at 276, but current spot price of more than 800 will be giving EKSONS a very good profitable margin in the coming QR for November.

EKSONS NTA is RM 2.40, current share price RM 0.645.

NET CASH position RM 175.963 million

NET CASH PER SHARE = RM 1.07 net cash per share

How much can EKSONS share price move in the coming future?

Short term looking at RM 0.80

Mid/Long term looking RM 1.20

Above information are just for your reading resource and not a guideline to buy sell or trade.

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Pharma already price in for current quarter result and prepared for future earning

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As I had been invested in Pharmaniaga, the result that is release on Wednesday evening could had gotten some mixed feeling over revenue and profits.

While there are some investor which are expecting a very good revenue and profit, however, it turn out that the profit is still going good, but not explosively tremendous until it will see the stock limit up. According to analyst, the result is within expectation.

Pharma revenue did improve by 44 million, and earning increase. There is some slight drag down on Indonesia operation due to payment from Indonesia government could be slightly hard during this trying time. Other than that, it is good.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/19/pharmaniaga-2q-net-profit-higher-at-nearly-10mil

The result could be factored into the price from a peak of RM 5

As you can see, the current price of RM 4.40 is more than 10% adjusted from the peak of RM 5.00, which is reflective of the current quarter result, but anticipating on the future revenue from the vaccine bottling and distribution effect.

If we are to compare on the virus outbreak and movement of share price, the Coronavirus got detect in the middle of December 2019 in WUHAN, CHINA. It got into momentum earlier this year, and global lock down on March 2020. However, most of the gloves share price are still not moving drastically upwards. It took almost 4 months for gloves company to consolidate, and journey to >1000% capital appreciation.

Hence, this will be the same for Pharma. The revenue and profit is there, but there will be waiting, but any good news on Vaccine development will spike the interest of investor in Pharma.

Currently, there are 2 vaccines under approved for limited use. One is from RUSSIA, and another from CHINA by Cansino Biologics. 

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2020/08/18/china-grants-country039s-first-covid-19-vaccine-patent-to-cansino

It is prime time now for Malaysian counterparts to get ready for Vaccine sourcing in order not to get stuck in the bottleneck of orders.

Further news from Minister of Science Technology and Innovation, Khairy Jamaluddin is recommending that the vaccine to be provided free to ALL MALAYSIAN. If this will come through, Pharma / Dpharma could be almost certain in getting a confirmed sales of approx 80 million doses (if 2 doses required per person)

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-coronavirus-malaysia-vaccine-free-for-all-13034404

Any drop in Pharma share price will be a good opportunity to scoop in due to the confirmed revenue and sales from the government.

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TSH BENEFIT FROM HIGH FPCO AND TIMBER PRICE, BACK WITH EPF PURCHASE FOR A GOOD UPWARD SWING

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Today glove industry stage a nice rebound, with multiple limit up coming back to the market. Market sentiment will continue to be strong with ample of volume.

I do not need to introduce gloves industry counter anymore, because it is known to everyone. Today want to highlight a potential company - TSH RESOURCES BHD (9059)

This company main business is palm oil plantation, including milling and refinery services. Other business is cocoa, biomass energy and timber (wood) business.

Primary revenue contribution is from operation of Palm Oil Plantation, and then follow with Timber sector (wood).

3 MAIN POINT THAT PUT TSH AS AN ATTRACTIVE COMPANY

1.) FCPO PRICES HAD BEEN CONSOLIDATING AT 2800 FOR MORE THAN 1 MONTH. LOOKING TO PUSH ABOVE 3000 WITH MORE BUYING FROM INDIA, EUROPE AND CHINA TO RESTOCK

FCPO projection can go above 3000 with supported buying from INDIA, EUROPE and CHINA as government restock on this commodity

https://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-palmoil/update-1-industry-body-expects-q3-rise-in-malaysian-palm-oil-exports-to-biggest-buyers-idUSL4N2DO1YR

2.) LUMBER FUTURE ALL TIME HIGH, BENEFIT TSH TIMBER CONCESSION

TSH got 100 years concession for sustainable timber plantation. A few years ago, TSH privatized Ekowood, a company that manufacture timber flooring products. The product are supply to local and international market.

High timber price will give TSH a better margin.

https://www.ekowood.com/en/inspirations/malaysia-projects/

3.) EPF AGGRESSIVE BUYING OF TSH FROM OPEN MARKET

The past 30 days, EPF had accumulated approximately 2% of TSH shares. This I believe is due to the positive outlook from higher palm oil and better margin from timber division.

TSH technical chart is giving good entry point. Current trend look set to see TSH is heading for uptrend, with positive news from industry. The current price is at technical low side, and can point towards potential upward swing.

Can target for a mid term RM 1.20

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WTK RIDING HIGH WITH THE ALL TIME HIGH LUMBER PRICE, BACK WITH UPRISING FCPO PRICE

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Today want to introduce a stock which is overlooked, due to the market attention that is all focus on gloves, vaccine, gold primarily. Malaysia is a diverse market, not only good in gloves, vaccines and gold. There are other important commodities that Malaysia export to such as Palm Oil, Timber/Lumber.

The retail perception of these timber / lumber commodity is that during the MCO lockdown, demand of such goods will fall. Surprisingly, the demand for LUMBER had sky rocketed into all time high (highest in the history) as the lock down force US/EUROPE citizen at home, they are looking into renovating their own house, and doing up repairs that are needed.

This had put up a surprising demand from the lumber operator, where most lumber operator thought demand will not be good, hence reducing output.

The situation now is high demand and low supply, pushing LUMBER FUTURES to all time high in history

So, what can this mean for lumberjack operator in Malaysia?

In Malaysia, those involved prominent ones that are involved in lumber chopping are FLBHD, WTK, SUBUR, JTIASA. 

WHY I CHOOSE WTK ?

Of all, the company with most liquidity is WTK - 4243. That is the reason WTK will perform better than the rest due to availability of liquidity for investor.

At the current market, investor/trader/IB will prefer to trade on company with liquidity. Although FLBHD is going to benefit, but the liquidity of shares will shy away big investor.

WHY WTK CAN BENEFIT IN A DOUBLE KILL MANNER?

There are a few operation under WTK, namely LUMBER, PALM OIL, MANUFACTURING OF TAPES.

Of all, revenue is 70% from LUMBER, 15 to 20% from PALM OIL, and the rest at manufacturing.

The drastic increase in LUMBER LOG price will give WTK a JACKPOT WINDFALL towards it's existing stock pile inventory.

Another benefit that WTK is getting is improving FCPO prices. FCPO predict to hit above RM 3000

As you can see, during crisis time, different country will want to stock up their important supplies. India is going to continue purchasing palm oil, europe as well and China. All these will be pushing CPO towards 3000 and beyond.

WTK CHART STRONG BREAKOUT WITH POSITIVE VOLUME

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WTK recommended at 11th AUGUST 2020 at baseline price.

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