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Today HENGYUAN had released its quarterly result for the financial performance period of OCT - DEC 2021.
During that period, the crack spread of MOGAS 92 BRENT is averaging at USD 9 to USD 10.
The profit estimation back then from my calculation is around RM 175 million.
As per the official result, the profit is almost RM 180 million.
So moving forward, it is important to know whether HENGYUAN is worth for the next wait on the bigger pie of profit or you are just going to sell it off.
My previous estimation is based on crack spread average of USD 9.
According to the moving price chart, I can foresee that Q1 2022 average crack spread can be lingering around USD 12 to USD 13. Let's take USD 12.50 as a point of calculation.
Crack spread rate of USD 12.5 is approximately an appreciation of 39% from previous average of USD 9.
So most probably next coming quarter can expect earning per share around 80 cents to 85 cents.
I believe next quarter can be seeing HENGYUAN start to give huge dividend to the shareholder again.
HENGYUAN will most likely challenge RM 5 in the immediate term as the resistant line. If the prospect of oil refinery crack spread continue to remain elevated, then the chances of HENGYUAN running above RM 10 will not be a dream too big.
So it will be the investor decision whether it is worth the wait for them to see the bigger piece of prize.
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Projection is based on estimation, and I am not responsible for the accuracy of the data provided. Please be informed, I am not a professional or certified analyst. I am not a licensed consultant, just a normal retail investor. I am just sharing my ideas and opinion on the market outlook. Any company mentioned should not be interpreted as a buy/sell/trade call. Please do your own research and buy/sell/trade at your own risk.
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